The COVID-19 infection rate in Northampton County has spiked to an unsustainable level in recent days, increasing the threat of an outbreak, according to current data analyzed by the coronavirus monitoring site CovidActNow.org.
On Thursday, an alert went out to site subscribers after the county’s infection rate surpassed the 1.1 threshhold, which means that for every person with COVID-19, another 1.1 other people are being infected in Northampton County.
According to CovidActNow, Northampton County’s infection rate as of Thursday was the fourth highest in the state–after Centre, Pike and Chester counties–at 1.14.
“As such, the total number of active cases in Northampton County, Pennsylvania is growing at an unsustainable rate,” a programmed update warned. “If this trend continues, the hospital system may become overloaded. Caution is warranted.”
Other nearby counties with high infection rates as of Thursday include Berks (1.11), Lebanon (1.12) and Chester (1.17).
Lehigh County’s infection rate stood at 1.02.
Many of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties have seen their infection rates increase over the last month, since many schools and universities resumed classes throughout the state.
Other metrics that are monitored by CovidActNow include daily new cases per 100,000 residents and positive test rate. In those categories, Northampton County currently ranks moderately, with 5.4 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (for a total average of approximately 16 new cases per day) and a positive test rate of 5.8 percent.
The positive test rate in the county has more than doubled over the past 10 days, from 2.5 percent on Sept. 7.
The number of deaths from COVID-19 in the county has declined significantly from earlier this year, when at the start of the pandemic the virus circulated widely throughout nursing homes and claimed the lives of hundreds of immunocompromised residents.
Data suggests that the death rate has declined in Pennsylvania and throughout the United States because many of the new infections are occurring in younger people, who are less likely to suffer serious or even life-threatening complications from COVID-19.
The Pennsylvania Department of Health Thursday reported 933 new COVID-19 cases in its daily update. That number brought the total number of cases statewide since the start of the pandemic to nearly 150,000. Additionally, nearly 8,000 Pennsylvanians have died from COVID-19 per the department, including 304 residents of Northampton County.
The state reported that approximately 1.7 million patients have tested negative to date.
The state also tracks COVID-19 case numbers by zip code. As of Thursday, there had been 130 confirmed cases in the 18055 (Hellertown) zip code to date, along with 376 confirmed cases in the 18015 (Bethlehem) zip code, which includes the most populous part of Lower Saucon Township. Those numbers do not include probable cases.
CovidActNow.org tracks COVID-19 case data at the county level in all 50 states. For more information as well as the latest metrics for Pennsylvania and other states, visit the site.
Pennsylvania is one of 17 states that are currently classified as having slow disease growth statewide. Two states–North and South Dakota–are currently having or are at imminent risk of having an outbreak, and the other 31 states are at risk of a COVID-19 outbreak, according to CovidActNow.
The rate at which individuals with COVID-19 are infecting other people in Northampton County has surpassed the critical threshhold of 1.1 and is now not only high, but also unsustainable, according to the tracking website CovidActNow.org.
